Weekly Market Insights
October 24, 2025 Volume 12 Issue 43
Equity markets posted largely positive returns, with the S&P 500 rising 1.93%, the Dow increasing 2.24%, and the Nasdaq climbing 2.31%. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 advancing 2.51%. International equities also gained, led by emerging markets and Asia Pacific. Sector performance was mixed, with Information Technology (+2.75%) and Energy (+2.38%) leading, while Consumer Staples (−0.50%) and Utilities (−0.19%) lagged. Commodities were volatile; oil surged 7.4%, while gold and silver declined sharply, ending multi-week winning streaks.
Economic growth indicators stay mixed. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates Q3 growth at 3.9%, but data gaps from the government shutdown may distort results. Corporate earnings have become more critical amid limited macroeconomic data, with Q3 S&P 500 earnings expected to grow by 8%. However, margins appear overly optimistic, and analysts warn about possible disappointments in 2026–2027 forecasts. Inflation remains above target, with September CPI rising 0.31%, below expectations. Energy remains a key factor, and recent oil demand updates suggest upward pressure could persist.
The Fed’s policy approach is being reviewed, with repo facility usage indicating liquidity stress. Market rates are pointing to tightening conditions, though futures suggest a moderate rate-cutting cycle could happen soon. The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3.75%–4% next week, amid increasing speculation about an early end to quantitative tightening. Fiscal concerns are rising as the neutral rate increases, adding pressure on deficit sustainability.
Recurrent themes include increasing geopolitical tensions, especially in trade and rare earths. The AI boom masks weaknesses in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, while 24-hour trading initiatives indicate a shift in market structure. Despite risks, investor sentiment remains bullish, supported by strong equity performance and expectations for ongoing monetary easing.
Have a great weekend!
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*All economic release data referenced from public sources believed to be accurate. *The source of data for all charts/graphs included in this presentation is Bloomberg LP. *Figures quoted represent monthly changes (m/m) and are seasonally adjusted.