Weekly Market Insights
October 30, 2026 Volume 13 Issue 42
U.S. markets favored small-cap growth stocks, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 ahead of the standard index. Healthcare’s strength contrasted with weakness in technology and communications. Overseas, developed international markets surpassed emerging markets. High-yield bonds and municipals outperformed investment-grade corporate debt, while longer maturities outpaced shorter debt. Longer-term Treasuries offered higher yields than short-term issues. Oil fared better than precious metals; listed private equity topped alternatives.
Business investment and consumer spending supported faster U.S. growth, with an initial estimate showing third-quarter real GDP expanding at a 3.4% annualized pace after 2.2% in the second quarter. Earnings estimates showed broad gains, though Nvidia and Micron accounted for 34% of projected third-quarter S&P 500 profit growth. The Fed said job gains kept pace with the workforce; inflation remained elevated, and persistently high price levels weighed on household confidence.
The Fed paused rate increases to assess whether energy costs and AI investment were spreading inflation. Two officials favored another increase, while the committee reaffirmed its 2% inflation goal. Chair Warsh avoided signaling future rate moves to preserve flexibility and outlined plans for fewer annual rate decisions, reserving some meetings for strategy discussions. Reduced foreign central-bank Treasury purchases increased reliance on buyers demanding higher yields.
Planned AI stock offerings highlighted competition for capital, while investors scrutinized free cash flow and banks monitored data-center lending. The Iran conflict restricted liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying competition between European and Asian buyers. Europe approached winter with unusually low inventories and gas prices at their highest since late 2022, underscoring the conflict’s effects on energy affordability.
Have a great week!
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*All economic release data referenced from public sources believed to be accurate. *The source of data for all charts/graphs included in this presentation is Bloomberg LP. *Figures quoted represent monthly changes (m/m) and are seasonally adjusted.